Market Recap - Week of August 18 through August 22, 2025
- Gordon Achtermann, CFP®, CSRIC®, MBA
- Aug 25
- 3 min read
The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% this week as investors grew more hopeful for a rate cut at the next meeting of policy makers at the Federal Reserve.
The market benchmark ended the week at 6,466.91, making its third consecutive week in the black. It is now up 2% for August and nearly 10% for the year to date.
The S&P 500 had been on track to snap its weekly winning streak as of the close of trading on Thursday, but turned positive on Friday following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that were seen as opening the door to a possible rate cut in September.
"The balance of risks appears to be shifting," and an adjustment to the central bank's policy stance may be warranted, Powell said at a widely watched conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Last Week’s Economic Reports
Building Permits fell 2.2%, which was less bad than the forecasted 2.8% drop.
Single-family housing starts rose 2.8% in July, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 939,000, up 7.8% from a year earlier. However, the overall pipeline for single-family home construction remains sluggish, with 621,000 homes currently under construction, down 1% in July and 3.7% lower than a year ago.
Existing home sales rose 2.0% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million units from 3.93 million in June. Sales increased by 0.8% year-over-year.
S&P 500 Sector and Stylebox Returns
Thought of the Week
Despite elevated economic uncertainty in markets during the first half of 2025, private equities have seen a sharp increase in exit activity compared to the first half of 2024. Deal volumes are up 104% y/y to over $330 Bn, and deal count is up 18% y/y to over 730 deals. Private equity firms commonly exit their investments by selling them to corporations or other private equity firms (M&A) or through public listings (IPOs). They then use these proceeds to return capital to their investors.
As 2025 began, investors anticipated a surge in deal-making and IPOs, driven by a perceived pro-business environment and declining interest rates. Although seesawing trade and tariff policies did put a dent in deal activity during the second quarter, U.S. private equity firms still achieved their second-highest recorded first-half exit volumes, according to Pitchbook figures. As shown in this week’s chart, U.S. private equity exit activity in 2025 is expected to surpass the industry’s 15-year average, providing a meaningful rebound for investors after a few down years following a massive spike in 2021. Both of the industry’s typical exit channels being open and active is a positive sign for the potential return of a healthy exit environment, which is critical to the private equity flywheel of buying and selling companies. This should also help alleviate the buildup of portfolio company inventories that may have risen over the last few years.
Now that U.S. trade and economic policies are becoming clearer, and provided economic conditions persist, the outlook for U.S. private equity exits for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 is much improved. For a diversified source of growth within portfolios, private equity remains a compelling opportunity for investors.
Source: JP Morgan (edited)
Up Next
Next week's economic reports will include the July personal consumption expenditures price index as well as the first revision to Q2 gross domestic product. July new home sales and pending home sales will also be released.
Want more? You can always find our latest Monthly Market Update webinar here:
All the Best,
Gordon Achtermann, CFP®
703-573-7325
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