Market Recap - Week of June 30 through July 3, 2025
- Gordon Achtermann, CFP®, CSRIC®, MBA
- 7 days ago
- 3 min read
Dear Friends,
The S&P 500 index rose 1.7% this week to another record closing high as June jobs data came in above expectations.
The market benchmark ended Thursday's abbreviated session at 6,279.35, its highest-ever closing level. This marked the end of the trading week as the US stock market closed several hours earlier than usual on Thursday and will remain closed on Friday for Independence Day.
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 locked in a 5% gain for June, marking its second consecutive monthly increase, which resulted in a nearly 11% Q2 jump for the index, wiping out Q1's 4.6% loss. The benchmark is now up almost 7% for the year.
In the technology sector, First Solar (FSLR) had the largest percentage gain, jumping 22% as RBC raised the price target on the shares to $200 each from $188. RBC said it believes President Donald Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" has "positive implications for near-term and potentially long-term demand" for First Solar. The firm maintained its investment rating on the stock at "outperform."
Last Week’s Economic Reports
Government data released on Thursday showed that the US economy added more jobs than projected in June while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 147,000 last month, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate for a 106,000 increase. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in June, down from 4.2%, compared with the Street's expectation for an increase to 4.3%.
S&P 500 Sector and Stylebox Returns
Thought of the week:
While it was a very volatile first half of the year from both a fundamental and market perspective, investors can draw two valuable lessons: the importance of diversifying and staying invested for the long-term.
Globally diversified investors profited, with international equities dramatically outperforming their U.S. counterparts by over 1,200 bps. Part of this outperformance was due to a falling U.S. dollar, with the greenback ending the first half down 10.7%. The benefits of diversification were also evident in fixed income, which generated solid returns and, as importantly, provided stability when risk assets were down. Commodities achieved steady returns despite geopolitical challenges. Cash returned 2.1%, which, while positive, serves as a further reminder that taking a “wait-and-see" approach does not achieve the best long-term results.
However, the first half of 2025 also reminded investors of the importance of staying invested and not trying to time the market. As shown in this week’s chart of the week, U.S. stocks saw a significant drawdown in the first half, with large caps declining 18.9% and small caps falling 24.5%. But by the end of the first half, large caps had rebounded, and small caps were only slightly down. Investors who stayed diversified and invested fared the best in the first half of 2025.
On average, valuations ended 2025 higher, but broad areas of global financial markets still seem reasonably priced. As we enter the second half of the year, investors should focus on diversification and portfolio rebalancing, taking advantage of the resilience provided by alternative asset classes.
Source: JP Morgan
Up Next
Economic data next week will be on the lighter side but will include May consumer credit on Tuesday and the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's May meeting on Wednesday.
Want more? You can always find our latest Monthly Market Update webinar here:
All the Best,
Gordon Achtermann, CFP®
703-573-7325
Your Best Path Financial Planning, a division of Silverstone Financial
