Market Recap - Week of November 17 through November 21, 2025
- Gordon Achtermann, CFP®, CSRIC®, MBA
- 2 minutes ago
- 3 min read
The S&P 500 index fell 1.95% this week in a technology-led decline as the September unemployment rate came in higher than expected.
The market benchmark ended Friday's session at 6,602.99. It is now down 3.5% for November but up 12% for the year.
September payrolls in the US rose by 119,000, more than the 51,000 increase expected, but roughly equal to the typical expansion of the labor force in any month. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, while Wall Street had expected it to hold steady at 4.3%.
The report was delayed by almost 7 weeks due to the record-long federal government shutdown, which ended last week.
Investors are weighing what the data might mean for the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Minutes from the October meeting showed policymakers held "strongly differing views" on the next rate decision.
Technology led the sector declines this week, falling 4.7%, followed by a 3.3% slide in consumer discretionary and a 3.1% drop in energy.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares fell 17%, and Micron Technology (MU) dropped 16%. Nvidia shed 5.9% despite stronger-than-expected fiscal Q3 results. Wedbush described the selloff as another "DeepSeek Moment," noting investor nerves around the sustainability of the AI buildout.
Alphabet's (GOOGL, GOOG) (officially in the communications sector, but a technology company nonetheless) shares rose 8.4% as its Google unit unveiled Gemini 3, its latest artificial intelligence model.
Next week, the market will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, followed by a shortened session on Friday, known as "Black Friday."
Last Week’s Economic Reports
Wages grew 0.2% m/m (3.8%y/y) in September.
S&P 500 Sector and Stylebox Returns
How to read the stylebox: The horizontal axis represents investment style, which can be value, blend, or growth for stocks and mutual funds. The vertical axis represents market capitalization for stocks, categorized into large, medium, and small companies. The number in each box represents the percentage growth of the category that is the intersection of the column and the row. For example, large-cap value is in the top-left corner of the box, so the large-cap value category is up by 12.4% YTD (year-to-date).
Thought of the Week
Last week marked the first whole week since the government reopened, allowing for the release of old and new economic data. The latest figures underscore an important trend: labor market slack is on the rise.
It is helpful to examine the three key indicators of the labor market: the unemployment rate, jobs hard to get, minus jobs plentiful, and continuing claims—as shown in this week’s chart. In September, although we just received the data this past Thursday, the unemployment rate rose 12 bps from 4.32% to 4.44%, a four-year high. Turning to the Conference Board's October Consumer Survey, while 18.4% of respondents saw jobs as “hard to get,” compared to 27.8% who saw them as “plentiful,” the gap was the second-smallest since March 2021. Meanwhile, although initial unemployment claims remain relatively stable in the most recent week, continuing claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 1,974,000 for the week ending November 8—a new cycle high.
While FOMC member commentary had grown more hawkish in recent weeks, dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams sent market expectations for a December cut back to 65%, helping equities bounce higher on Friday after recent losses. However, history suggests that when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic weakness, it does little to help the economy or bolster the stock market. Therefore, investors should pay close attention to growing labor market slack as a potential threat to both the economic expansion and the very strong stock market gains of recent years.
Source: JP Morgan (edited)
Up Next
Earlier in the week, economic data will include September retail sales and the September producer price index. The government shutdown delayed both reports.
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All the Best,
Gordon Achtermann, CFP®
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