Market Recap - Week of October 13 through October 17, 2025

The S&P 500 index rose 1.7% this week as earnings season kicked off on a largely positive note and President Donald Trump said his proposed 100% additional tariffs on China are "not sustainable."

The S&P 500 ended Friday's session at 6,664.01 and is down 0.4% for the month, but up 13% for the year.

US stocks fell in the previous week as Trump said he was considering "a massive increase" in tariffs on Chinese products coming into the U.S. This Friday, stocks moved in the opposite direction as the U.S. president said the additional tariffs were "not sustainable." The comments provided some relief at a time when tariff worries have been weighing on investor sentiment.

Also giving the market a lift, Q3 earnings reports began coming in largely above analysts' mean estimates. All of the S&P 500's sectors rose on a weekly basis.

Micron Technology ( MU ) was among the top performers in the technology sector. Shares rose 11% amid reports that the company's planned $100 billion semiconductor megafab in Onondaga County (Syracuse) will be linked to a power substation following approval by New York state regulators of a new underground transmission line.

Last Week’s Economic Reports

Economic reports have been delayed due to the US government shutdown. The September jobs report is still missing, and updates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have been suspended until the government resumes operations.

S&P 500 Sector and Stylebox Returns

How to read the stylebox: The horizontal axis represents the investment style, which can be value, blend, or growth for stocks and mutual funds. The vertical axis shows market capitalization for stocks divided into large, medium, and small categories. The number in each box represents the percentage growth of the category that is the intersection of the column and the row. For example, large-cap value is in the top-left corner of the box, so the large-cap value category is up by 12.4% YTD (year-to-date).

Thought of the Week

Last Friday marked the 17th day of the government shutdown, leaving investors without government economic data for yet another week. Last week, investors missed out on a key reading of consumer health due to the delay of the September retail sales report. Fortunately, we can check in on the consumer using alternative data sources.

Among the most reliable sources is the Chicago Fed’s advanced retail trade summary, known as CARTS. By tracking eight weekly indicators, including retail foot traffic and transaction data, CARTS provides a “nowcast” for retail sales excluding autos. This indicator showed that retail sales excluding autos likely rose 0.5% m/m in in September and 6.2% annualized during the third quarter. This would mark the fastest quarterly pace of nominal growth in two years. Adjusting for inflation, the measure rose modestly by 0.2%/m/m but was a solid 3.3% annualized in the third quarter, up from 1.8% in the second.

Despite a slowing labor market and unpredictable trade policy, recent data suggest that consumers remained resilient during the third quarter. However, not all consumers are faring the same. Lower-income consumers have lagged those in higher-income cohorts this expansion, although they have begun to close the gap in recent months. While tariffs and sluggish employment growth should continue to weigh on lower-income consumers, barring a broader equity market sell-off,upper-income consumers should hold steady. This should help alleviate fears that the U.S. economy will fall into a recession ahead of the fiscal stimulus set to be delivered in early 2026.

Source: JP Morgan (edited)

Up Next

Economic data will be light if the US government shutdown continues. The shutdown has caused a delay in closely watched government data releases, including the September jobs report.

Thank you to all who attended this month's market Update webinar!

You can watch the replay here:

https://www.yourbestpathfp.com/post/monthly-market-update-webinar-october-2025.

The episode is also available wherever you listen to podcasts!