Market Recap - Week of June 16 through June 20, 2025
- Gordon Achtermann, CFP®, CSRIC®, MBA
- Jun 23
- 3 min read
Dear Friends,
The S&P 500 index edged down 0.2% this week as gains in the energy, technology, and financial sectors were outweighed by declines elsewhere.
The market benchmark ended Friday's session at 5,967.84. It is now up 1% for the month and 1.5% this year.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its benchmark lending rate unchanged for a fourth straight meeting while sticking to its federal funds rate outlook for 2025 amid higher inflation expectations. Policymakers continue to expect the median federal funds rate to be 3.9% at the end of this year, indicating potential easing in 2025. They raised their 2026 rate outlook to 3.6% from 3.4% projected in March and to 3.4% from 3.1% for 2027.
The health care sector had the largest percentage drop of the week, falling 2.7%, followed by a 1.7% drop in communication services and a 1.2% loss in materials. Utilities, consumer discretionary, real estate, consumer staples, and industrials also declined.
Energy had the largest percentage increase on a weekly basis, climbing 1.1%, followed by a 0.9% rise in technology and a 0.8% increase in financials.
The energy climb came as crude oil futures rose amid turmoil in Iran. Gainers included EQT, which rose 6.3%, and Valero Energy (VLO), up 5.2%.
Among financials, Coinbase Global (COIN) shares soared 27%. The company said it has secured the Markets in Crypto Assets license from the Luxembourg Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. Coinbase said the license allows it to provide crypto products and services to all 27 European Union member states.
Last Week’s Economic Reports
Retail sales declined 0.9% in May.
Housing starts fell 9.8% in May.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)(The Fed's policy-setting board) held rates steady at 4.25% - 4.50%.
S&P 500 Sector and Stylebox Returns
Thought of the week:
Recent tariffs are delivering on at least one promise— making the government richer. As the chart of the week shows, net federal revenue reached $ 60 billion in the first five months of the year, nearly double the same period in 2024. Much of this windfall came in April and May, following sweeping tariff hikes: a baseline 10% on nearly all imports, plus higher rates on select sectors and countries. Yet the bigger economic question—one the Fed is closely watching—is who is ultimately paying these tariffs.
Data released last week showed that U.S. import prices ex-fuel rose 0.3% in May and are up 0.8% year-to-date. These prices are calculated before tariffs. If foreign producers were truly "eating the tariffs," prices would have fallen— roughly by the increased tariff rate—to offset higher costs U.S. importers are facing. Instead, the modest increase suggests that foreign suppliers are holding firm, with little indication that this will change anytime soon. With a nearly 7% decline in the trade-weighted dollar this year, foreign businesses are already earning fewer euros, yen, or local currencies per dollar, limiting both their ability and incentive to provide discounts. As a result, U.S. businesses and consumers are now on the hook, through tighter margins today, and likely reduced purchasing power ahead.
With the Fed projecting weaker growth yet in no rush to cut rates, monetary stimulus remains distant. Against this backdrop, stretched U.S. equity valuations and looming margin pressures leave limited room for upside. Therefore, investors would be wise to look beyond familiar shores—to regions like the eurozone, which leads to earnings revisions while still trading at a steep discount.
Source: JP Morgan
Up Next
Economic data expected for the rest of the week includes Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), New Home Sales (Wednesday), GDP, Durable Goods, and Jobless Claims (all Thursday).
Want more? Here is a link to our latest Monthly Market Update webinar:
All the Best,
Gordon Achtermann, CFP®
703-573-7325
Your Best Path Financial Planning
