Market Recap - Week of November 3 through November 7, 2025

The S&P 500 index fell 1.6% this week, led by the technology sector, as consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level in three years.

The S&P 500 ended Friday's session at 6,728.80. This marks its first weekly loss since the week ended on October 10. The index is up 14% year-to-date.

Economic readings have been sparse for the past month as the government shutdown has delayed multiple reports. Preliminary results from one report that came in this week -- the US consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan -- showed that consumer sentiment fell to the weakest level in more than three years amid concerns about the shutdown's impact on the economy.

The main sentiment index declined for a fourth consecutive month to 50.3 in November, from 53.6 in October, marking the lowest reading since June 2022. The consensus prediction was 53 in a Bloomberg poll.

Now in its 38th day, the US government shutdown is the longest ever. Some federal employees have been furloughed, and key economic data, including Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, has been delayed.

Last Week’s Economic Reports

Economic reports have been delayed due to the US government shutdown. The September jobs report remains unavailable, and updates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have been suspended until the government resumes operations.

S&P 500 Sector and Stylebox Returns

How to read the stylebox: The horizontal axis represents investment style, which can be value, blend, or growth for stocks and mutual funds. The vertical axis represents market capitalization for stocks, categorized into large, medium, and small companies. The number in each box represents the percentage growth of the category that is the intersection of the column and the row. For example, large-cap value is in the top-left corner of the box, so the large-cap value category is up by 12.4% YTD (year-to-date).

Thought of the Week

The federal government shutdown has now become the longest in history, resulting in a second consecutive missed jobs report from the BLS. In its absence, we can lean on alternative data sources to gauge the health of the labor market. This month, these sources have provided mixed signals.

ADP reported a 42k gain in private payroll jobs in October after a 32k decline the month prior. Both the ISM Services and Manufacturing employment indices improved, with the pace of contraction slowing in both sectors. Meanwhile, state-level initial jobless claims for the month ending in the October survey week actually fell from September. Other indicators, however, suggest caution is warranted. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, announced seasonal hiring plans are tracking well below normal levels, while layoff announcements over the past two months have reached their highest levels for September/October combined since 2008. New job openings, as reported by Indeed, have continued to decline steadily, while consumer perceptions of labor market conditions reached their second-lowest level in over four years in October, according to the Conference Board. All of this aligns with the increase in the real-time unemployment rate forecast from the Chicago Fed to 4.4% in October.

Considering these and other indicators, our in-house estimates that 52k jobs were added in September, but that 35k jobs were lost in October.* Notably, this forecast assumes a 120k decline in federal government employment in October as most of the 150k+ employees who took a buyout this spring fell off federal payrolls. While the Federal Reserve is also lacking official data on jobs, if their reading of labor market weakness aligns with ours, a further rate cut in December remains likely.

*Remember that about 150,000 more people enter the workforce than leave it just due to population growth, so in a month when only 50k jobs are added, unemployment actually increases by about 100k.

Source: JP Morgan (edited)

Up Next

Economic data will likely remain light if the US government shutdown persists. The shutdown has delayed closely watched government data releases, including the September jobs report.

Thank you to all who attended this month's market Update webinar!

You can watch the replay here:

https://www.yourbestpathfp.com/post/monthly-market-update-webinar-october-2025.

The episode is also available wherever you listen to podcasts!